Picking apart the BMW HK Derby

Twelve months ago, I called it an unusual HK Derby, with no standouts, after a "campaign towards the race with plenty of stumbles along the way for the lead contenders."

Well, that was borne out subsequently by the win of Cap Ferrat, a horse who had never a won a race, anywhere, beforehand and came off a ninth placing in his lead-up run.

Not since Holy Grail finished 11th over 1000m before the 1999 Derby victory 17 days later had a winner come off a worse result to score.

Cap Ferrat's win came due to a very slow midrace pace, lucky run from an inside draw when he didn't have come outside even one horse - luck was a fortune.

As they used to say in the newspaper game back when typewriters were still all the go - put a carbon in, because the 2026 Derby looks like a copy.

The best four-year-olds, Sky Jewellery and Bulb General were sidelined by vet issues well out from the race, the remainder have squabbled over unconvincing wins and unlucky defeats for the most part since, including six different placegetters in the two designated lead-up races, the Classic Mile and Classic Cup.

One of the distinguishing points for us at HK Winning Factor this season has been the narrow level of talent displayed across the group. It looks a race where an ounce of luck is going to be worth pounds of talent.

This table shows the kind of levels required by past winners, though we have had some low-rating editions, where the race was sullied by very slow tempos, often coinciding with significant interference that muddied results.

That doesn't have to be a negative on the horses themselves.

Voyage Bubble won a low-rating Derby two years ago where it was walking pace most of the way but he has certainly turned out a star, while Fay Fay didn't achieve much after his very slow, low-rating 2012 Derby win, but behind him were the likes of Military Attack, Dominant, Dan Excel and Liberator, all subsequent G1 performers.

All of this year's Derby runners - and certainly all the contenders - have lived in a very crowded segment of achievement, most rating between 88 and 92 on our scale. There are runners who have rated higher last season but have yet to reproduce those figures at four.

In previous years, many of them would be fringe chances at best but the likes of Little Paradise, Numbers, Stormy Grove and Invincible Ibis look front line contenders, despite none of them having any rating better than 92.

One of the talking points before every Derby is whether horses have previous experience/success at 2000m but a majority of HK Derby winners have not even raced at the distance previously, so it looks an overplayed angle.

As to personnel with past successes - John Size has trained 3 Derby winners, Tony Cruz and Caspar Fownes two each, Francis Lui, Dennis Yip and David Hayes have one each, but Fownes, Lui and Hayes don't even have a runner this year.

So what do we see in 2026?

With prizemoney of $HKD 26 million ($USD 3.32million/ $AUD 4.68 million / GBP 2.47 million / EUR 2.87 million) it is the second-richest Derby in the world on turf, and only the Japanese Derby and Kentucky Derby are worth more.

Yet, in 2026, most runners arrive at the big dance with HK Winning Factor ratings that wouldn't win the average HK Derby.

LITTLE PARADISE, with 6 wins and 2 placings from 10 starts, at least has a formline that looks like a good horse's summary, even if his ratings haven't been anything special.

He has shown a level of quality from the start, doing a great job to win his debut over 1200m last season despite being used very hard in the early stages of the race and finished that campaign with 4 starts for 2 wins and a second and a rating peak with us of 91.

He has done nothing wrong since his return as a 4yo, beaten only twice in 6 starts, with excuses in both. He has logged ratings of 91 (twice) and 92 in the Classic Mile when he was held up for clear running for some distance in the home straight before surging home when clear to score by two lengths.

That made him the favourite for the Classic Cup over 1800m but a very slow start there saw him 3 lengths behind the field after 50m and on the back foot before running eighth. That said, Vincent Ho didn't panic and took a conservative approach and Little Paradise turned into the straight towards the rear in a group that included the winner Stormy, Grove, runner-up Invincible Ibis and third-placed Patch Of Cosmo, all of which finished better than him.

It has to be a forgive run in the circumstances but it wasn't a run that left no doubt that he might have won without the starting issues. He still has to run out the trip and will get well back from the draw, but his consistency and winning record make him as good a chance as any.

NUMBERS arrived with a 92 peak from Australia,where he raced as King Of Thunder and was runner-up on heavy ground in the Queensland Derby, a race which has waxed and waned as a source of HK Derby horses but hit a peak a decade ago with the likes of Werther and Eagle Way.

He did appear on the evidence of his Australian career to be a more dour staying type than is usually successful in Hong Kong and he certainly was going to struggle to find heavy going.

However, he has not put a foot wrong, running well in all four starts, with tough wins over 2000m in Class 2 and 1800m with a light handicap in a Group 3, both times running a strong tempo in the lead and fighting on well.

He again led in the Classic Cup, when sent out as a serious winning chance, and the pace was too strong, producing the best effort in the race to hold on for fourth. He does look the likely pace horse in this despite gate 13, but will have to do some work in the first 200m to get across and has shown a tendency to take a strong hold in the best of circumstances so Derek Leung's ability to get him to relax at some point will be crucial.

STORMY GROVE, the better-fancied of two runners in the race for high profile local owners Marc and Lily Chan, has had the right sort of feel to him as an emerging talent - arriving

very much unexplored after two starts for Patrick and Maree Payne in Victoria, a strong-finishing 1221m maiden win before another strong finishing 2d at Flemington. It was clear his best was all still ahead and he has not run a bad race in HK, though it took him until his sixth start to break through for a win in Class 3, hampered often by falsely-run races that have characterised much of the program this season.

When he did win, it was an eye-catching last to first mile win rating 90 that won him a late call up for the Classic Cup, when he loved the fast-run 1800m to score again in good style with an 89 rating. Trainer Frankie Lor won the Derby with Furore and certainly has another chance here, given what looks the required level of talent.

SAGACI0US LIFE

South American imports have performed well enough over the past decade, classic winners there measuring up to Class 2 in Hong Kong and this guy has brought something similar.

He won 4 times and was second twice from 6 starts in Brazil, as Navio Fantasma, including a wide margin victory in the Derby Paulista in Sao Paulo.

He did something that doesn't happen that often, winning a Class 2 at his first Hong Kong race, and he won again in that class at his third start as well. Those wins prompted Zac Purton to jump aboard in the Classic Mile, though the wins had not rated especially well under out scale, with 87 his best. He was a pass mark in the Classic Mile and Purton stayed on for the Classic Cup but this time he was keen despite the fast pace, he was failing well before a nasty check at the 200m and was reported with breathing issues after.

He has trialled well enough since to put a line through that run and does have a soft draw.

INVINCIBLE IBIS

This son of Hellbent had a good reputation before two defeats as a 3yo, runner-up in sound efforts before taking an 86 rating to his summer break.

He returned at four with his reputation undiminished and on face value has lived up to that with 4 wins from 7 starts but his rating numbers have never quite matched the hype.

Partly, that was due to some modest or stop-start tempos that affected his Winning Factor ratings, but the day that he got the perfect pace and race shape to post a big rating, he won but beat Beauty Bolt only a neck and his rating of 90 was solid but far from spectacular.

In the Classic Mile, he disappointed from a wide draw, unable to make the ground up despite a good pace, but drew better In the Classic Cup, didn't go around a horse and ran on again but this time into second, rating 87.

He's trier and, like Little Paradise, has a good-looking form line of 9 starts for 4 wins, 3 seconds and and a third, so his consistency keeps him under notice and he has drawn well again.

PATCH OF COSMO

To some, he might have crept up under the radar with an unlucky run in the Classic Mile then a placing in the Classic Cup, and his two-year-old performances had not suggested much for the future.

However, he improved sharply at three, winning 4 of 8 starts and with three top ratings of 90, 91 and 92, he looked a likely type for the four-year-old series until a tendon injury in March last year.

The problem kept him out of racing until January 18 this year, when he did a great job to return with an 89 rating winning over 1600m at Sha Tin. His two runs since have been in the 4yo series and he should probably have been placed in the Classic Mile after being badly held up in the final 400m before running on into third in the Classic Cup.

His talent is up to the job in this company, as evidenced by those performances, but one issue that holds him back is his slow starts. He has missed away at seven of his 11 starts at three and four, so what sort of help his gate six draw will be here is an open question.

BEAUTY BOLT

The Kwok family, with wealth from their empire of cosmetics shops, have raced hundreds of horses in the last 20 years and spent fortunes trying to win the Derby.

They've had a champion like former Horse Of the Year, Beauty Generation, who placed third behind Rapper Dragon in 2017, and they've had other Derby favourites amongst more than a dozen who made it to Hong Kong's favourite race but victory has eluded them so far.

This year, it is Beauty Bolt who flies the pink, white and black colours, and he arrived with a Dundalk polytrack maiden win to his credit in one Irish start for Joseph O'Brien.

His early Hong Kong form showed real Derby promise and he quickly put up ratings at the 89-90 level as a three-year-old last campaign, giving hope that he might put a couple of lengths on that with time and be a leading light for this race.

He is hard to knock as he has continued to race at that level or not far off it, but has not been able to improve on it.

His Classic Mile run was one of the best in the race after working near a fast lead pace, momentarily looking the winner at the 200m before the back markers swamped him and he wound up third. In the Classic Cup, connections indicated he would be ridden more patiently and he got into a midfield spot, three wide but with cover, and didn't run badly but wasn't able to do better than midfield. Gate eleven looks an issue from the 2000m start and he still needs to find more to win.

EMBLAZON is one of the real wild cards in this year's Derby.

He had backing in a couple of starts as a 3yo last season without landing a blow but has returned with 6 starts for 5 wins and a second this campaign - with another win if you were to include race he won at Sha Tin on November 15 that was declared void.

In some ways, he is a throw back to a different time, arriving on Derby day with a campaign that has not seen him tried beyond 1400m.

That kind of program was not unusual in Hong Kong back in the day but trainers have become less adventurous, or less skilful, and tend to test horses over more distance now before tackling the 2000m.

The last horse to go into the Derby with a preparation in any way similar was Pierre Ng-trained Galaxy Patch two years ago, beaten a neck in second place after having a lead up over 1400m at his only attempt beyond 1200m. However Galaxy Patch was already competing in G1 races before the Derby so he did have a class edge on his rivals.

Emblazon doesn't have that sort of edge but does win races - four of his wins have been by less than a length so he doesn't lack determination - and he did put up a 92 rating winning in Class 4 1200m in December before dropping back to the mid-80s level in his three 1400m wins since.

As a sidelight, leading local rider Jerry Chau's quest for a first Derby win on Emblazon has been part of a remarkable record he has for the owners, as Chau has won 8 of 10 rides for the Military King's Syndicate this season.

TOP DRAGON is another of these horses who put up a very solid rating or two last season as a 3yo - peaking at 93 - without getting back to that level this season but he is one of the knockout chances in the race.

His first few runs were all around the 90 mark this season, including a length second to Little Paradise when both carried top weight of 135 pounds in a Class 3 in December, so he has good form lines and his numbers are somewhere near the ball park in this company. Things have been muddied up since, with the son of Pierata finding trouble in the Classic Mile in the final 200m and in two Class 2 placings on either side of it.

He has yet to run a bad race in 13 starts for 3 wins and 6 placings and, but for traffic problems, that would read even better.

His style does require some luck that he hasn't been getting but he is the best chance trainer Chris So has sent into a Derby since Redkirk Warrior ran favourite in 2015 and struck severe interference behind Luger.

REGAL GEM won two 1200m sprints at Pontefract and Haydock in the UK before arriving in Hong Kong and has been a worthwhile and consistent performer since. His three wins have come over 1200m at Happy Valley but he has also finished handy in a good level of competition over 1650m there and 1600m at Sha Tin, the latest his placing on February 19 behind Stunning Peach and Top Dragon.

His best ratings at 1200m haven't been too far away from the general level of ratings in this race but he hasn't threatened danger in either of those mile races and maybe his best recommendation is that he has the tactical speed to make use of a good barrier.

JUNEAU PRIDE is John Size's only runner this year and has been a model racehorse since he began as a three-year-old, with 15 starts for 3 wins, 9 placings and only failing to land a prizemoney cheque once tells the story. Tough and genuine, he returned this season at the top of Class 3, having to cope with wide draws and big weights against other emerging talents, including placings behind Emblazon at his last three starts. His peak of 94 as a three-year-old still remains his best, though a peak this season of 91 is in the conversation here in terms of talent. It would not have surprised to see him compete well in a Classic Mile but he didn't run and the question mark now is over his stamina rather than his ability.

He is very much sprinting-bred but maps well in the race.

DAZZLING FIT is one of two runners for David Eustace in his second season in Hong Kong racing, and always looked a chance for this race as far back as May last year, when he swooped home behind a fast pace to win impressively over 1400m and posting a HK Winning Factor 95 rating that still stands up as the best figure in this race. He subsequently won well at 1400m then ran on well at 1600m before spelling.

His form on paper this season doesn't reflect that quality, after a wretched campaign, hampered by wide draws or very slow tempos, or sometimes both, he did win a race beating Beauty Bolt in November after having a difficult, wide trip.

His other five starts this season have fallen into the forgive files and the furthest he has been beaten was 3 lengths, last start in the Classic Cup, when he finally got a strong tempo but that was totally against him as he was stuck off the track and wide the whole way. He produced a bid for the front all the same at the 200m but the extra work deadened his finish and he did well to hold on for fifth.

It was a serious pointer to his chances stretching out to 2000m in the Derby with the right run but his chances took a blow at the draw on Thursday with gate 14.

In last year's Derby, gate 14 proved the undoing of Luke Ferraris' on runner up My Wish and it won't help him again this time, but Dazzling Fit does have the talent required.

SERAPH GABRIEL

The second of the runners for both trainer David Eustace and owners Marc (pictured) and Lily Chan, Seraph Gabriel looked a serious Derby hopeful when the season opened and he showed up in the Sha Tin work files in late August.

A one-time winner for Ralph Beckett in the UK, he also logged a photo-finish second in the Golden Gate Stakes at Royal Ascot and it looked the right sort of form.

Some early trials showed promise, his first HK run was moderate in a slow tempo but his second was very sound, running on for second over 1600m.

Every chance, he rated 88 on our scale and poised to returned to what we assess as a 93 peak overseas, which would make him a Derby player, however his third start was poor when he failed to do much at all in a well-run 2000m on February 19.

He had cheek pieces first time and perhaps he didn't enjoy them, because he has since trialled well without the head gear and they come off here.

That trial has to be put in some context - in a 4-horse field he beat Regal Gem and Top Dragon, neither of which really went looking to beat him but he had a good test from Hugh Bowman and his finishing times were decent enough. He gets Zac Purton, who was without a Derby ride until James McDonald was unable to get a flight from Sydney, so that's a plus but a tricky draw.

POPE CODY won 3 of 5 in Queensland, Australia, all on soft tracks, and looked strong enough at the end of 1623m in his last win there, ridden by Jimmy Orman who has been aboard in all his 15 HK starts as well.

He has won only once locally, peaking with an 87 rating that lined up with his form in Australia, but has been very genuine, earning prizemoney in most runs, getting back and running on in everything. He has been all around the placings behind some of the contenders here, was seen running on into sixth in the fast-run Classic Cup over 1800m behind Stormy Grove and is the type who could run on into minor prizemoney again but needs to find a new level to be a real threat.