Eighteen months ago, the talk in the world of turf sprinting was all around Hong Kong's Lucky Sweynesse and whether he should be aimed at the The Everest at Sydney's Royal Randwick.
He was the world's top-rated sprinter at the time after sweeping Hong Kong's Group One sprint series for trainer Manfred Man and his jockey Zac Purton was all guns blazing on the idea of heading to Sydney for the richest race in in the world on turf - the then $AUD 15 million race, The Everest.
Now it's Ka Ying Rising, this time in the hands of Australian Hall Of Fame trainer, David Hayes, and Zac Purton is once again the jockey, as talk turns to the 2025 The Everest, now worth $AUD 20 million.
There are some differences.
Lucky Sweynesse had already banked multiple Group Ones while Ka Ying Rising will be short odds to win his first on December 8. Perhaps the Everest discussions, which have now lit up in Australia since Sunday's record-smashing Jockey Club Sprint win, will become much more prevalent in Hong Kong as well once that box is ticked.
A significant difference is having Hayes as the horse's trainer. To Manfred Man, the Everest was a racing assignment but there will be far more emotional attachment for Hayes to the prospect of travelling a horse back to his homeland to win a major event.
In time, have no doubt that Purton will be up and about around the idea of The Everest too - - but we are still back where we were with Lucky Sweynesse when we talk about how attractive the target is for Ka Ying Rising's ownership syndicate.
Yes, the $AUD 20 million tag gets a lot of attention but the prizemoney breaks down very quickly to something less imposing.
Any race in Hong Kong, for example, offers a prize of 56 % of the total prizemoney for the winner. For the upcoming Hong Kong Sprint, that will be $HK 14.56 million ($AUD 2.89 million).
For a $AUD 20 million The Everest, that would be a prize of $AUD 11.2 million, however, the actual published first prize for the race is a much lower percentage, $AUD 7 million.
That would take you a long way in a bus and is not to be sniffed at but it breaks down further due to the construction of the slot race at Randwick.
Places in the race field come via "slot" and the slots are owned by individuals or organisations, who then do a partnership deal with the ownership of the horse that will represent their slot.
No slot, no start - this is why there was so much discussion about whether The Everest deserves a Group One classification (it doesn't), because it is not open to all comers. It isn't beyond the possible that slot owners could collude to keep out a superior horse which does not have a slot.
Let's assume that there are already talks going on to get Ka Ying Rising a slot for the 2025 The Everest then. What does a deal look like? How long is a piece of string?
If we take the most basic view and assume the slot holder is happy to offer a 50/50 split, now the first prizemoney is down to $AUD 3.5 million for Ka Ying Rising's ownership syndicate, less the percentages for the jockey and trainer, of course. They get paid their percentages out of the published first, so that's another chunk that goes missing for the owners. That's not to say that the trainer and jockey don't deserve that, but when you're tallying up returns to owners, it has to be considered.
So, as a 50/50 split, the prizemoney for first then becomes not that much more than the Hong Kong Sprint, but with all the added complications and dangers of travelling and likely having to give up, or at least compromise, achievements here at home which should be a walk in the park.
The logistics of a run in The Everest on October 18 would mean Ka Ying Rising would have to do two weeks of quarantine in Hong Kong before departing for Sydney, where he would have to do another two weeks before the race. So, that's quarantine from early-mid September, with a flight in between.
Oh, and you have to win the race, too. Australia's sprinters currently are easy beats but in a jurisdiction that does turn out high class sprinters regularly, there's no saying how competitive The Everest might be in 11 months from now. The sums don't look nearly as good if you don't win the race.
And there's always the chance of the extra hurdle of hitting a heavy track in Sydney - something that Ka Ying Rising might never see in Hong Kong. Several runnings of The Everest have been on very wet ground and maybe he'll handle it, maybe he'll be better on it - in my view his best performance was on rain-affected going In the Chief Executive's Cup in September - but it's one more question mark.
There is also the issue of cost.
Perhaps Racing NSW offers a travel assistance subsidy but I couldn't see anything on the race webpage regarding that and, unlike previous foreign horses who ran in the Everest with a shuttle career at stud as an extra incentive, Ten Sovereigns and US Navy Flag, Ka Ying Rising is a gelding.
So it 's all about the money - or the glorious sporting gamble.
Post-Everest, Ka Ying Rising would have about 8 weeks before the HK Sprint. There is no export quarantine leaving Sydney but he would have to do two weeks upon returning to Hong Kong. Then the 2025 Jockey Club Sprint might offer a viable lead-up race to international day, or he would go straight into the Hong Kong Sprint.
Neither looks impossible by any means but that path was far too much for the only horse to have tried The Everest-HK Sprint double: the most impressive winner of The Everest, Hong Kong-owned Classique Legend. He was a shadow of himself by the time he had made the trip to Hong Kong and ultimately finished eleventh in the HK Sprint.
So there is a lot to think about even when The Everest is a firm possibility but, the sheer sporting glory aside, is it a reasonable target?
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